Toronto New Condo Prices Rise, While Detached Losses Get Bigger

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Greater Toronto new home sales are picking up, but buyers are mixed on prices. Altus Group data shows new home sales across Greater Toronto made a double digit climb in July. Even with the rise in sales, trade volumes are still light this year. Prices

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Greater Toronto new home sales are picking up, but buyers are mixed on prices. Altus Group data shows new home sales across Greater Toronto made a double digit climb in July. Even with the rise in sales, trade volumes are still light this year. Prices followed with a mixed move – condo prices accelerating gains, and detached prices falling further.

New Toronto Detached Real Estate Prices Fall, While Condos Rise

Greater Toronto new home prices are falling, except in the condo apartment segment. The benchmark price of a new single-family home fell to $1,091,727 in July, down 4.5% from last year. The decline works out to ~$8,000 lower than the month before, and the rate of decline increased from 3%. New single-family homes have been trending lower in price in for a few months now.

New condo apartments got a boost last month, with prices even accelerating gains. The new condo benchmark reached $838,824 in July, up 8.3% from last year. The increase is a sudden acceleration of the 12-month growth, which was up 3.9% the month before. Fast rising condo prices and a sluggish detached market is also being seen in home resales.

Toronto New Home Sales Are Flat, But The Suburbs Are Soaring

New home sales jumped higher in Greater Toronto, but the rise was mostly in the 905. New home sales reached 2,863 units in July, up 35.11% from last year. Breaking that down, single family homes represented 566 of the sales, up 135% from last year. Condo apartments represent the remaining 2,297 units, up 22.24% from last year. Further refining that number by region, we see most of the bump in sales in the suburbs – not the City of Toronto.

Greater Toronto New Home Sales

Total June new home sales in Greater Toronto.

Source: Altus Group, Better Dwelling.

New home sales in the City of Toronto were basically flat last month. There were 1,568 sales in July, up 0.19% from the same month last year. Breaking it down, there were 46 new single-family homes sold, up 475% from last year. Condo apartments represent the other 1,522 sales, down 2.24% from last year. The single-family increase would be impressive if it wasn’t such a low volume. Most important, this highlights most growth is coming from the suburbs.

Greater Toronto New Home Sales

Total new home sales in Greater Toronto for June, by region.

Source: Altus Group, Better Dwelling.

Greater Toronto New Home Sales Rise, But Still A Slow Year

Even though Greater Toronto had a bump in new home sales, it is still shaping up to be a slow year. Year to date (YTD) there was 19,949 new home sales at the end of July, up 41.39% compared to last year. The number, while a significant improvement, is still 24.17% below the 5-year median for the period. New home sales are on track to print the fourth slowest year since the Great Recession.

Greater Toronto New Home Sales YTD

Total YTD new home sales in Greater Toronto for June.

Source: Altus Group, Better Dwelling.

Greater Toronto New Home Inventory Rises Over 16%

Greater Toronto has a lot more inventory kicking around. There were 17,282 new homes for sale in July, up 16.89% from last year. That’s about 121.53% more inventory seen during July 2017. New home inventory is up a little from last year, but up a whack from two years ago.

New home sales increased faster than inventory, improving the sales to active listings ratio (SALR). The SALR hit 15.57% in July, compared to 14.33% during the same month last year. The market is a seller’s market when the ratio is 20% or higher, and prices are expected to rise. Below 12% is a buyer’s market, and prices are expected to fall. Between 12% and 20% is balanced, and the market is considered priced for demand. By this measure, the market would be considered balanced.

Greater Toronto New Home Sales To Active

The ratio of sales to active listings for new homes in Greater Toronto, for the month of June.

Source: Altus Group, Better Dwelling.

Greater Toronto new homes saw higher sales, and mixed price movements. Sales increased, but it’s worth noting the rise was almost entirely in the suburbs. Prices increased for condo apartments, with the 12-month gain even accelerating. However, detached homes continued to see prices fall – with losses getting larger.

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